NBC/WSJ poll: Obama maintains lead, but Romney within striking distance

Pablo Martinez Monsivais / AP

President Barack Obama walks during his visit to the Hoover Dam, Tuesday, Oct. 2, 2012 in Boulder City, Nev.

By Mark Murray, NBC News Senior Political Editor

On the eve of the first presidential debate, President Barack Obama maintains his national lead over Mitt Romney, but the Republican nominee is well within striking distance, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

Obama edges Romney by three points among likely voters, 49 percent to 46 percent, which is within the survey’s margin of error. Obama’s lead was five points, 50 percent to 45 percent, in the NBC/WSJ poll released two weeks ago, following the political conventions.

But among a wider pool of registered voters, the president is ahead of Romney by seven points, 51 percent to 44 percent.

Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff, argues that the poll results contain good news for both candidates.

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More: National trends at work in battleground Colorado

Although the race is tight, Mitt Romney is inching forward, making the upcoming debates between the presidential candidates even more crucial. In the latest NBC/WSJ poll, nearly 40 percent said the debates will be either 'extremely' or 'quite' important. NBC's Chuck Todd reports.

For Obama, he’s ahead at a time of growing optimism about the economy and nation’s direction. For Romney, it’s a “margin of error” contest that comes as interest in the upcoming election lags among key Democratic constituencies versus four years ago.

But Hart adds, “Barack Obama has the better hand.”

Read the entire poll here (.pdf)

Indeed, the poll also shows the toll the past month has taken on Romney, with a majority of registered voters saying that the events of the last couple of weeks had given them a less favorable impression of the Republican challenger.

What’s more, by a 2-to-1 margin, these voters have a negative reaction to Romney’s comment – caught on tape from a fundraiser back in May – that “47 percent” of Americans are dependent on government and believe they are victims.

Why the race is closer among likely votersAmong the full universe of registered voters in the poll, Obama leads Romney with African Americans (95 percent to 3 percent), Latinos (winning seven in 10), women (56 percent to 40 percent), and independents (48 percent to 35 percent).

Jewel Samad / AFP - Getty Images

Mitt Romney embraces a woman, outside Chipotle restaurant in Denver on Oct. 2, 2012.

Romney, meanwhile, has the advantage with whites (54 percent to 41 percent), seniors (52 percent to 43 percent), suburban residents (51 percent to 45 percent), and men (48 percent to 45 percent).

But among voters expressing the highest interest in the election, Obama and Romney are essentially tied (49 percent to 48 percent).

And two key pillars of Obama’s political coalition – Latinos and young voters – are much less interested in the election than they were in 2008.

“That helps to explain why it’s close among likely voters,” Hart says.

Likely voters are defined in the survey as those expressing the highest interest in the upcoming presidential contest (either a “9” or “10” on a 10-point scale), and those who have participated in recent or past elections.

Economic optimism risingWhile the race is closer among likely voters, the poll has this good news for Obama: optimism about the economy continues to increase.

Forty-four percent believe that the economy will improve in the next 12 months. That’s up from two points in the last NBC/WSJ survey, eight points since August and a whopping 17 points since July.

John Heilemann and Ruth Marcus join Andrea Mitchell Reports to debate whether voters can expect any memorable moments for Wednesday's upcoming presidential debate.

What’s more, 57 percent think that the U.S. economy is recovering, versus 39 percent who disagree with that notion.

And four in 10 now say the country is headed in the right direction, which is the highest percentage on this question since June 2009.

“We have a different feeling about the economy than we did this summer,” says McInturff, the Republican pollster.

McInturff explains that much of this increased economic optimism is coming from Democrats, whose attitudes are matching their ballot preference. But he adds that it’s also coming from political independents and even some Republicans.

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Obama vs. Romney on the issuesGiven the increased economic optimism, Obama and Romney are nearly tied on which candidate would better handle the economy, with 45 percent picking Romney and 42 percent choosing Obama.

Read the entire poll here (.pdf)

But Obama leads Romney on almost all other issues and character traits – looking out for the middle class (53 percent to 34 percent), handing the situation in the Middle East (48 percent to 32 percent), handling immigration (45 percent to 31 percent), dealing with Medicare (48 percent to 36 percent), being a good commander in chief (47 percent to 39 percent), handling foreign policy (46 percent to 40 percent), and dealing with taxes (46 percent to 41 percent).

Romney, meanwhile, holds the edge on dealing with the federal budget deficit (43 percent to 34 percent) and dealing with the economic challenges that the U.S. faces from China (45 percent to 37 percent).

And the two are tied on who is better equipped to change “business as usual” in Washington (36 percent to 36 percent).

Senior campaign adviser Robert Gibbs explains how President Barack Obama is preparing for Wednesday's debate and whether John Elway's endorsement of Mitt Romney will hurt the president's campaign.

While Obama enjoys an advantage over Romney when it comes to foreign policy, just 45 percent approve of the way he has handled the recent unrest in Egypt, Libya, and other Arab countries.

The president’s overall job-approval rating stands at 49 percent, while 46 approve of his handling of the economy.

‘47 percent’ takes a toll on RomneyThe poll – which was conducted Sept. 26-30 – comes after intense scrutiny and TV-ad attacks on Romney’s “47 percent” comment, in which he said that percentage of Americans don’t pay income taxes, are dependent on government, and believe that they are victims.

After hearing a full description of that comment, 45 percent of registered voters said it gave them a more negative impression of the GOP presidential nominee, versus 23 percent who had a more positive view.

More: Almost 40 percent say upcoming debates will be important

By contrast, when the same respondents were read a full description of Obama’s “You didn’t build that” line – comments Republicans seized on to portray the president as anti-business – 36 percent had a positive reaction and 32 percent had a negative reaction.

In addition, 51 percent say that what they've heard, seen, and read about Romney in the past couple of weeks gives them a less favorable impression of the former Massachusetts governor, compared with just 36 percent who say the same of Obama.

Slideshow: On the campaign trail

Reuters, Getty Images

In the final push in the 2012 presidential election, candidates Mitt Romney and Barack Obama make their last appeals to voters.

Launch slideshow

Overall in the survey, 44 percent say they have a negative view of Romney, while 41 have a positive view.

That 41-44 favorable/unfavorable rating is lower than Obama’s own 52-42 rating. And it’s lower than every other presidential nominee’s score at this similar point of time in the history of the poll – except for George H.W. Bush’s 34-52 rating in October 1992.

Will the debates change things?Looking ahead to the presidential debates, nearly four-in-10 registered voters say that the upcoming debates will be either "extremely" or "quite" important in helping determine their vote in the presidential race.

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Still, more than 60 percent say that the debates are either "just somewhat important" or "not at all important" to their votes.

McInturff, the GOP pollster, doubts that the debates will change the fundamentals of this contest.

“It would take an episode of some magnitude to disrupt the structural lock in these numbers,” he says.

The NBC/WSJ poll was conducted Sept. 26-30 of 1,000 registered voters (including 300 cell phone-only respondents), and it has a margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points. The margin of error for the 832 likely voters is plus-minus 3.4 percentage points.

Source: http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/02/14186700-nbcwsj-poll-obama-maintains-lead-but-romney-within-striking-distance?lite

China says US fails to defuse 'debt bomb'

China warned Wednesday that tortured efforts to raise the US limit on borrowing had failed to defuse Washington's "debt bomb", and signalled it would further diversify its holdings away from the dollar.

China, sitting on the world's biggest foreign exchange reserves of around $3.20 trillion as of the end of June, is the largest holder of US Treasuries

After months of bitter negotiations with his Republican rivals, US President Barack Obama finally signed an emergency bill on Tuesday that averted what would have been a disastrous debt default for the world's biggest economy.
But in a blistering commentary, China's official Xinhua news agency ridiculed the US political process and warned that the deal had done nothing to change the country's addiction to borrowing.
"The months-long tug of war between Democrats and Republicans... failed to defuse Washington's debt bomb for good, only delaying an immediate detonation by making the fuse an inch longer," the commentary said.

It described the negotiations between the Republicans and Democrats as a "madcap farce of brinkmanship", and lectured US politicians to take more responsible measures to fix their country's economic problems.

In the first official reaction from a Chinese government body, China's central bank delivered a more measured statement and welcomed the deal.

But it nevertheless said it would continue to diversify its foreign currency investments.

"China's foreign exchange reserves will continue following the principle of diversified investment, enhancing risk management and minimising the negative impact of volatility in global financial markets," People's Bank of China governor Zhou Xiaochuan said in a statement.

"Large fluctuations and uncertainty in the US treasury bond market will affect the stability of international monetary and financial systems, which will hurt the global economic recovery."

Also on Wednesday, the Chinese ratings agency Dagong downgraded the United States for the second time since November, with a continuing negative outlook.

China, sitting on the world's biggest foreign exchange reserves of around $3.20 trillion as of the end of June, is the largest holder of US Treasury bonds and has previously expressed concerns over its investments.

China Investment Corp, set up in 2007 to invest a chunk of the country's hefty foreign-exchange stockpile, has been trying to diversify since the global financial crisis struck in 2008.

The $400-billion sovereign wealth fund has been increasing its already substantial holdings in European bonds to get better returns and prop up debt-laden euro-zone countries, which are major buyers of Chinese exports.

Exact figures on the size of China's euro holdings are hard to find, but analysts estimate its stockpile is relatively small, with most holdings in large countries such as Germany and France

However, analysts said China had no choice but to continue buying US debt in significant amounts for the time being.

"I'm sure they are looking into diversification but it's only going to be at the margins," IHS Global Insight analyst Alistair Thornton told AFP.

"In reality it is very hard for China to diversify away from buying US debt without fundamentally changing its whole economic model... no other market is as liquid as the US debt market."

Yin Zhentao, an economist with the Chinese Academy of Social Science, also said China had few other avenues.

"China's central bank has to mop up liquidity and the US Treasuries are the most important option," Yin told AFP.

Dagong, which has links to the government, said in a statement it had downgraded the United States' local and foreign currency credit rating from A+ to A, with a negative outlook.

Raising the US debt ceiling will "further deepen" the country's economic woes," said Dagong, adding that the "interest and safety" of creditors was not guaranteed.

Dagong has little financial muscle outside of China but has made a name for itself by accusing its three Western rivals -- Moody's, Fitch and Standard & Poor's -- of causing the financial crisis by not properly disclosing risk.

The big three agencies have consistently awarded Washington their highest possible ratings -- allowing the United States to take on more debt at lower cost, which China has blamed for fuelling inflationary pressures.

Dagong's chairman, Guan Jianzhong, is a paid adviser to China's government, but insists his agency is fully independent.

Article source: http://www1.dtinews.vn/news/news/international/china-says-us-fails-to-defuse-debt-bomb_14955.html

US House votes to avert imminent default

A man watches a breaking news alert on the national debt limit on a TV in the window of a bank August 1, 2011 in New York City.

 
With barely a day to act, the polarized US House of Representatives approved a massive austerity plan to avert a debt default that would have wreaked havoc through the global economy.
After eight months of often angry negotiations, the Republican-led House voted 269-161 on a package backed by President Barack Obama to raise the limit on US borrowing and enact at least $2.1 trillion in spending cuts over the next decade.
The Democratic-led Senate was expected to approve the emergency measure in a noon (1600 GMT) vote Tuesday -- scarcely 12 hours before a midnight deadline by which the world's richest nation would run out of cash to pay its bills.
"It is imperative that the United States not default on the nation's obligations, that the full faith and credit of the United States be preserved, and that the nation's fiscal house be put in order," the White House said.
In a moment of high drama -- an rare show of unity in the ideologically torn Congress -- Democratic Representative Gabrielle Giffords drew applause and cheers from her assembled colleagues as she made a triumphant first return since being shot in the head in a January shooting rampage in her home state of Arizona.
But the vote showcased many of the political fault lines likely to shape Obama's November 2012 re-election bid, notably conservative Republicans' all-out push to cut government spending, and Democrats' quest to raise taxes on the rich.
The vote was a key test for House Speaker John Boehner, a Republican, who said before the vote that the package would start "fixing our fiscal problems" and "provide more confidence for employers in America."
"The process works. It may be messy, but it works," Boehner told CNN in brief remarks after the vote.
The ultraconservative "Tea Party" among Republicans had demanded a hard line. Tea Party favorite Michele Bachmann opposed the deal as too tepid, although other members of the movement called the deep spending cuts a triumph.
Republicans backed the plan 174-66, while Democrats denied a Democratic president a majority of their votes, splitting evenly 95-95 on the measure after many of them waited until the last minute to cast their ballots.
Liberal Democrats were outraged at what they saw as an abandonment by Obama of core principles. Representative Nancy Pelosi, the top House Democrat and member of the party's left-wing flank, took to the floor before the vote and pleaded with her colleagues to consider supporting the package.
"I'm not happy with it," she said, but "please think of what could happen if we defaulted. Please, please, please come down in favor of preventing the collateral damage to our seniors and our veterans."
Liberals were aghast that the plan relied on spending cuts and did not include increases in tax revenues from the rich and wealthy corporations, although Obama has called for letting tax cuts for the top brackets expire in January 2013.
"This deal is a sugar-coated Satan sandwich. If you lift the bun, you will not like what you see," Democratic Representative Emanuel Cleaver, who heads the Congressional Black Caucus, said on his Twitter feed.
Financial markets also showed concern, with early optimism evaporating by midday on worries the deal could fail to prevent a downgrade of Washington's top Triple-A debt rating.
A downgrade could push up US interest rates, making debt payments more expensive and affecting any flexible-rate loan in the sputtering US economy, still grappling with historically high unemployment of 9.2 percent.
European share prices slumped sharply, but Wall Street recouped early losses. Shares opened lower Tuesday in Tokyo but largely over speculation that Japan will intervene to weaken the strong yen, dealers said.
Russia and China, often on the receiving end of US criticism, have been critical of the debt talks. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin accused the United States of acting as a "parasite" living off its creditors.
US Vice President Joe Biden, a 36-year veteran of the Senate, held talks on Capitol Hill to press fellow Democrats to back the deal, fruit of six months of fitful talks between President Barack Obama and his Republican foes.
Emerging from closed-door talks with House Democrats, Biden said he had gotten an earful of their "frustration" but that there was a "a sword of Damocles hanging over everyone's heads."
The blueprint negotiated between Obama and congressional leaders would include more than $900 billion in cuts over the next 10 years -- $350 billion of it in defense. A special congressional committee would then be tasked with coming up with another $1.5 trillion in cuts to report by November 23.
A failure by the committee would trigger automatic cuts -- half in defense spending, a priority for many Republicans. Automatic cuts would not touch Democratic-backed Social Security and Medicare payments for the elderly, although they would still affect providers of the health care program.
In a key point for Obama, the package will raise the debt ceiling into 2013 --- meaning he will not be forced into a similar showdown with Congress on spending in the midst of his re-election campaign next year.
The debt ceiling would rise by up to $2.4 trillion in two steps. The US government hit its current debt limit of $14.3 trillion on May 16 and has since been operating through spending and accounting adjustments, as well as higher than expected tax revenue.

AFP

Article source: http://www.thanhniennews.com/2010/Pages/20110802120807.aspx

Obama says both U.S. parties reach tentative debt ceiling deal

U.S. President Barack Obama said Sunday night that he had reached a last-minute debt ceiling deal with Republican and Democratic leaders to stave off a looming debt default crisis.

U.S. President Barack Obama stands at the lectern to deliver remarks on the debt ceiling crisis in the briefing room at the White House in Washington July 31, 2011. (Xinhua/Reuters Photo)

A bipartisan plan could help lift the cloud of uncertainty over the U.S. economy and financial markets, he said at a hastily arranged press conference to ease market jitters. The U.S. federal government's borrowing limit, currently at 14.29 trillion U.S. dollars, was reached on May 16. The Treasury Department said that it would run out of cash to pay its bills unless Congress agreed to raise the limit by Aug. 2.
The first tranche of deficit cutting would be about 1 trillion U.S. dollars over the next decade, said Obama, adding that spending cuts would not come too quickly to hurt the fragile U.S. economic growth.
"The result would be the lowest level of annual domestic spending since Dwight Eisenhower was President -- but at a level that still allows us to make job-creating investments in things like education and research," he added.
The package would also set up a bipartisan congressional committee to find new deficit cutting ways in line with the second tranche of debt limit increase by November, Obama said.
House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner said Sunday that the panel was endeavoring to find a deficit of at least 1.5 trillion dollars to trim.
Obama said this deal was not one he preferred, but added that "this compromise does make a serious down payment on the deficit reduction we need, and gives each party a strong incentive to get a balanced plan done before the end of the year."
Experts held that this package would lift the federal debt limit in two stages by at least 2.1 trillion dollars, enough to tide the White House over after the 2012 elections. But it was a tentative proposal, as any compromise plan still needs to clear a Democratic-controlled Senate and a Republican-held House.
"We're not done yet," Obama said, urging U.S. lawmakers to approve the debt ceiling compromise plan in next few days.
No votes on the deal were currently expected in either chamber of Congress until Monday at the earliest.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid Sunday afternoon voiced his support to this blueprint plan, while House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi said Sunday afternoon that House Democrats have not decided whether to support the last-ditch deal.
VietNamNet/Xinhuanet
Article source: http://english.vietnamnet.vn/en/world-news/11365/obama-says-both-u-s--parties-reach-tentative-debt-ceiling-deal.html

2014 FIFA World Cup preliminary draw

FIFA President Joseph Blatter presided over the 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil Preliminary Draw in the city of Rio de Janeiro on Saturday.

Former Brazilian football player Ronaldo participates in the preliminary draw for the FIFA World Cup 2014, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, July 30, 2011. (Xinhua/Wilton Junior/Agencia Estado)

Conducted by FIFA's Secretary-General Jerome Valcke, the draw, combined musical talent, emotion-catching video and soccer stars, determined the fate of 166 teams in their quest to earn a spot in the 32-team tournament.

Brazil's most famous soccer player Pele was on hand to welcome FIFA to Brazil. The legendary striker who scored more than 1,000 goals in his career, is an honorary ambassador to the 2014 World Cup.

Additionally, Brazilian President Dilma Roussef was present to observe the draw and learn more about the undertakings of her country's future event. Former stars including Ronaldo, Cafu, Zico, Zagallo, Bebeto, and current players including Neymar, Lucas Paizon, Fellipe Bastos and Paulo Henrique Ganso helped in the drawing.

The 32-team format will remain the same as previous World Cups. Europe will be represented by 13 teams. Africa will have 5 teams. South America and Asia will both have 4.5 spots. North America, Central America and the Caribbean will be awarded 3.5 places and Oceania will have a sole team competing for a chance to advance via an intercontinental play-off.

As Brazil is automatically qualified for the 2014 World Cup, the remaining 9 teams - Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela - will battle for the top four spots of the qualifiers and earn a spot in the tournament.

The fifth place finisher will compete in an intercontinental play-off against a team from Asia.

The North, Central American and Caribbean Zone are comprised of 35 participating members, who will compete for 3 spots in the 2014 World Cup. The team that places fourth in the group will advance to compete against the representative from Oceania.

With the drawing concluded, some 824 qualifying matches are set to take place. The quest for World Cup qualification begins as soon as September 2, 2011, and extends to October 15, 2013.

As Brazil do not have to compete in qualifiers, head coach of the national team Mano Menezes will have the tough task of preparing his team just through friendlies.

Upon their arrival to Rio de Janeiro, Blatter and Valcke expressed their support for Brazil, saying the country will be able to overcome the difficulties to deliver a successful World Cup.

Regarding the Confederations Cup that will take place in 2013, largely known as a warm-up to the World Cup, Blatter stated that FIFA is concentrating on three or four stadiums in Brazil to host the tournament. However, no definitive decision has been made as to which stadiums will hold the Confederations Cup.

VietNamNet/Xinhuanet
Article source: http://english.vietnamnet.vn/en/world-news/11350/2014-fifa-world-cup-preliminary-draw.html